Lula miraculously beat the Brazilian far right and Donald Trump. But have no doubt: the region is still in peril
After the rejoicing, it will be vital to learn the lessons. The rightward shift is neither inevitable nor irreversible, but progressives cannot rest for a moment
TL;DR
- Lula da Silva won a fourth term in Brazil's presidential election, a historic comeback after losing the first round.
- The election was framed as a referendum on democracy and social gains versus the Bolsonaro family's agenda.
- Lula's victory interrupts a regional trend of right-wing presidential wins in Latin America.
- The ascendant right-wing movement is aligned with Donald Trump's ambitions to reassert US dominance in the hemisphere.
- Security concerns and economic frustration are key drivers for the rise of the new right in the region.
- Washington has used endorsements, sanctions, and financial aid to support right-wing candidates and pressure governments.
- Brazil's critical minerals are a point of contention, with Washington seeking access and Lula defending Brazil's trade freedom.
- Trump's interventions in Brazil, such as threatening tariffs, backfired and helped mobilize support for Lula's re-election campaign.
- Despite Lula's victory, the right-wing movement retains substantial electoral support and influence in Brazil and across the region.
- The region's political landscape is fragmented, with deeply divided electorates and closely contested elections.