The poll is being cast by Conservative-aligned voices as a welcome recovery for Kemi Badenoch, while its own findings point to a far less settled contest: Labour still leads, and the three largest parties are tightly grouped.

A one-point Conservative advantage over Reform UK has sharpened the debate on the right, with supporters of Badenoch seeing momentum and the polling evidence urging caution rather than certainty.

More in Common’s survey of 3,250 voters, conducted between August 28 and 31, put Labour on 26%, the Conservatives on 23% and Reform on 22%. The Liberal Democrats were on 11%, the Greens on 9%, and Restore Britain on 4%.¹

For the Conservatives, the result is significant because it is the first time the party has moved ahead of Reform in 18 months, according to the reports. A senior Tory source used the finding to argue that Reform was losing ground, saying: “It’s still a long way to go, but it’s now clear Reform are going backwards.”² The source also linked Reform’s position to internal disputes and questions around a £5 million personal donation.

The pollster’s interpretation was more restrained. Luke Tryl, More in Common’s UK director, said the changes were “margin of error changes” and that results could move during conference season.¹ He nevertheless noted that it was the Conservatives’ highest vote share since January and Reform’s lowest for 18 months, while adding that the recent inclusion of Restore Britain in prompts could affect the figures.²

Labour’s 26% still leaves it ahead, though its support was reported to be down one point week on week. The same polling gave Prime Minister Andy Burnham a net approval rating of 13, compared with one for Badenoch and minus 27 for Nigel Farage.¹

Reform’s position is also complicated by reporting that Farage won a Clacton by-election after scrutiny of his finances. He has denied wrongdoing, while the major parties did not contest the vote.²