I've crunched the numbers on Zack Polanski's chances of being an MP. Here's the truth
The Green leader's decision to seek the nomination for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election is bold, writes pollster Sir John Curtice
TL;DR
- Zack Polanski is seeking the Green Party nomination for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, a seat previously held by Sir Keir Starmer.
- The constituency's demographics (young, diverse, pro-Remain) are generally favorable to the Green Party.
- Discontent with Sir Keir Starmer's stance on Gaza was a factor in previous election results, where Green and left-wing candidates performed well.
- Labour has seen a national poll bounce since changing leaders, gaining support at the expense of the Greens.
- Changes in foreign policy announcements by the new Foreign Secretary, Ed Miliband, may signal a shift in Labour's stance on the Palestine question.
- Polanski's personal popularity has decreased following controversy related to reposting a comment on a stabbing incident.
- Polanski's net favorability rating has fallen, particularly among current Green voters.
- Polanski's ability to attract voters, similar to Andy Burnham's success, will be crucial if he secures the nomination.