Ryanair is warning that soaring jet-fuel costs could force a difficult balance: higher ticket prices may cushion the blow, but the airline says they are unlikely to cover it entirely. That leaves possible pay freezes, leaner crew ratios and wider use of artificial intelligence on the table.

The airline expects its fuel bill to rise by about €2 billion in the financial year ending March 2028 as existing hedging arrangements roll off. It says prices could stay high into 2027 without a rapid end to the Middle East conflict. Michael O’Leary said: “Unless there is a swift resolution of the Middle East conflict we expect jet fuel prices to remain elevated well into 2027.”¹

Reporting from the left focuses most directly on the potential effect on workers and travellers. Ryanair is examining “temporary pay freezes” as labour agreements expire, while also slowing recruitment, cutting capacity and considering reduced crew levels. It has said fares may need to rise by double digits, with O’Leary previously estimating a 20% increase would be needed to absorb the fuel shock.²

The company’s argument is that fare rises alone cannot close the gap. “While we believe European short-haul fares will increase materially … this is unlikely to provide a full offset for an estimated €2bn increase in our fuel bill,” O’Leary said.¹ Its review includes airport negotiations, staffing arrangements and AI-driven productivity in operational and back-office functions.

Right-leaning coverage similarly stresses the expiry of the airline’s lower-priced fuel hedges and the pressure on margins, rather than disputing the prospect of pay restraint. Ryanair reported profit after tax down 15% to €2.15 billion for the half-year to September, despite higher revenue and passenger numbers.³

Both accounts point to uncertainty over demand as well as costs. O’Leary said bookings remain close to departure, leaving the airline with limited visibility on the crucial holiday period and no meaningful full-year profit guidance yet.³